Bhartiya Janta Party who turned 39 yesterday celebrated their foundation day with joy but on the very same day their former star campaigner Shatrughan Sinha joined congress. This was, though, anticipated and BJP more or less was prepared for it as Mr. Shatrughan Sinha was very vocal against BJP’s top leadership but still a blow. Let’s talk about BJP’s 39 years journey first. From being insignificant in Indian politics to one of the world biggest political party (more than 90 millions followers), from 2 loksabha seats in 1984 to 284 seats in 2014 and from Mr. Vajpayee as first party president to Mr. Amit Shah as incumbent president,  it was really a journey of thousand  miles for BJP.

BJP has registered its name in the history of Indian politics by giving so many prominent faces, so many eminent personality who has done so much work for this country. BJP’s origin lies in Bhartiya Jan Sangh formed by Shyama Prasad Mukherjee in year 1951 but later after emergency Bhartiya Jan Sangh merged into Janta Party. After Janta party dissolution Mr. Vajpayee , Mr. Advani along with other popular faces formed Bhartiya Janta Party and former prime minister Mr. Vajpayee became first president of the BJP. His famous speech on the very first day of foundation is still popular among politicians. Here is the link for his speech.

Here is timeline of BJP since its foundation day.

1980 : Formation of BJP

1984 : Wins only 2 seats in Loksabha election (Rem elections were held after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.

1989 : Wins 85 seats in loksabha election, supports VP Singh’s  government but later withdraws support.

1991: After withdrawing support from VP Singh’s government fresh election happens and BJP wins 120 seats. But Congress forms the government and Narshima Rao becomes 9th PM of India.

1996: BJP wins 161 seats and becomes single largest party, Mr. Vajpayee becomes 10th Prime Minister of India but only for 13 days due to no support from other party.

1998: Mid term polls were held and BJP wins 182 seats and Mr. Vajpayee becomes Prime Minister but this time too for 13 months only as AIADMK withdrew support.

1999 : Fresh election happens and this time too BJP wins 182 seats but this time Mr. Vajpayee’s nationwide acceptance and credibility bring coalition to form NDA and keep government intact for full 5 years and Mr. Vajpayee becomes first non congress Prime Minister to complete full term.

2004: NDA and BJP loses the election as public did not accept India shining slogan given by BJP. BJP wins only 138 seats

2005: Mr. Vajpayee retires active politics

2009: NDA and BJP again loses the election and wins 116 seats to become main opposition party. Mr. Advani was the candidate from NDA.

2013: BJP announces candidature of Narendra Modi for upcoming General election 2014.

2014: BJP for the first time in the history of its politics wins absolute majority by winning 282 seats, NDA wins 336 seats.

BJP has given two Prime Ministers ( Mr. Vajpayee and Mr. Modi ) and  two Presidents (Dr. Kalam and Mr. Kovind) to this country so far and by track records we can fairly say that Mr. Vajpayee and Dr. Kalam were two gems given by this party to India, of course both are the epitome of hard work, dedication and commitment towards their work. For PM Modi and President Kovind they have time to leave their legacy behind as they are still in office.

Now let’s talk about the current situation of BJP and are upcoming election becoming a tough nut to crack for them?

Recent events and the position which BJP and PM Modi has taken tells us the different story and clears it out. Congress recently announced its manifesto for upcoming general election 2019 and one particular scheme has created stir among BJP’s top leaders i.e NYAY Scheme under which congress has promised to give every poor family Rs. 12000 monthly. It is a universal income scheme and we all know how much we Indians love freebees, Delhi is the prime example of how AAP party got 67 out of 70 seats mainly because AAP announced to give everything for free. Except for water and slab relaxation on electricity bill we have not got anything else for free so far.

BJP is rightly concerned as freebees made AAP win with such a huge and unprecedented margins in 2015, and it might could do wonders for congress too. After Pulwama attack India responded through Balakot air strike and since then congress lost the ground on Rafael, they could not milk this issue any more and BJP accused congress that had not congress chimed in they would have done more damage to Pakistani’s terrorist camps. Congress started Chowkidar Chor Hai and in counter to that BJP started Main Bhi Chowkidar campaign which was more successful and everything was going fine for BJP till congress announced their manifesto. Many people including BJP members have called it congress’s desperation and fear of losing election, according to them congress has announced such scheme without giving it a proper thought whereas congress claims they have taken the expert’s advice. Irrespective of what congress is saying that they have already done calculation and all but in reality they know it is going to drain Indian economy unless India finds a magical source of income.

BJP like in 2014 again has become successful in keeping this election as presidential one in which two leaders go head to head. On one side we have PM Modi and on another side we have Congress President Rahul Gandhi. In experience, oratory and every other possible way which we can think of Mr. Modi looks far better than Mr. Gandhi but still BJP instead of projecting the work of Modi government tossing issues like Hindu Attankwad, Nationalism etc. PM Modi himself leading with these charges and his party is following up but why BJP is doing this especially when they clearly have an edge on the congress party?

PM Modi assails Congress over ‘Hindu terror’ tag, takes jibe at Sharad Pawar

To get the answer of this question we have to go back in time, year was 2004 when Mr. Vajpayee was at his peak, his  popularity was soaring and dwarfing others, India was growing with 10% of growth rate yet BJP-led NDA lost the election in 2004. Political analysts still trying to figure out what went wrong from, India shining slogan to Gujarat riots everything was looked in detail yet not a concrete answer were given by political pundits on what went wrong for BJP. Two clear observation we got from 2004 election

1. Congress is master of comeback

2. BJP can not relax if it wants to remain in power

And second one is what BJP has done , Since 2014 and noticeably since Amit Shah became party president BJP has turned into an election machine. A party which fights a panchayat election to general election like a war, PM Modi knows they do not want to repeat 2004 and they know how perceptions change on every second day . This is why neither Modi nor BJP is in relaxing mood and always on war footing. They know whatever work they have done people might not remember it but they will remember 72000 promised by congress  and to tackle that BJP has no other choice except to open the doors for debate on nationalism and Hindutatva which clearly is the turf of BJP. Congress which still playing soft Hindutatva card has fielded Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in UP and has given her the responsibility for making the most damage to BJP in UP.

Read Here : Election Dates Announced By Election Commission

One thing for sure Priyanka is no Rahul Gandhi she knows what and whom she is engaging with, she can connect with masses, she can  speak and not only that she can take jibes on opposition and be as cheeky as PM Modi.  BJP clearly is nervous because of this duo of Rahul and Priyanka with of course game changing scheme of giving Rs. 72000 per year.

Now the only question is will congress be able to pull another 2004 or Modi will defy all the odds and become second Non congress Prime Minister ( after Vajpayee) to serve for another term in office? Only time will tell but nervousness is quite visible because, a year back BJP was talking about all the development work they have done but today they have changed narrative of this election. To be very honest there are many flaws in this government but somehow congress is not able to find one big issue out of this government work whereas BJP has pulled the big punches of nationalism and Hindutatva. Congress not looking into the right direction at the moment though they have really created stir in BJP with their manifesto. That being said we also have to notice that congress stand on sedition case and AFSPA has given new ammunition to BJP which is already firing the nationalism warhead on congress.

We have to wait for the final verdict of people of India but till then only speculation will rule. This is election is not aggressive as it was in 2014, people are less enthusiastic which could cost in voters turnout which as per historical data always help incumbent government. People need something to come out from their home to vote like in 2014 Modi and corruption charges on congress were the motivating factor which is clearly missing this year. Let us wait for 23rd May and we will see if congress remains the master of comeback or Modi defies the odds.