The political corridors of Delhi are once again buzzing with the whispers of an impending President’s Rule. These speculations gained traction after the President’s Secretariat forwarded a memorandum submitted by Delhi BJP leaders to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), demanding the imposition of President’s Rule. Their reasoning? The city’s governance has come to a standstill with Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal imprisoned since March 2024.
Third in Command Leader of AAP, Atishi, has accused the Centre of attempting to topple the Kejriwal government. Both parties are exchanging fiery rhetoric, but for the sake of analysis, let’s assume BJP is indeed mulling over imposing President’s Rule. The question is—would this move benefit them, or is it a potential political disaster waiting to unfold?
The Timing: A Desperate Move?
With Delhi’s Assembly elections scheduled for February 2025, one wonders what has changed for the BJP to consider such a drastic measure now. Kejriwal has been in jail for over six months, although he briefly emerged during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. His presence, even from behind bars, remained potent enough to cause ripples in Uttar Pradesh, where his remarks on Yogi Adityanath sent shockwaves through the BJP’s fortress. Is the BJP sensing another political wave from Kejriwal, one that they want to quell before he can regain his full powers?
Here are the possible reasons why the BJP may be considering such a move—and why it could backfire spectacularly.
1. Anticipating a Favorable SC Judgment for Kejriwal
The Supreme Court is expected to announce its verdict on Kejriwal’s bail soon. Legal experts suggest that the ruling might favor Kejriwal, thanks to his lawyer, Abhishek Manu Singhvi. BJP could be strategizing to act before Kejriwal regains control. His ability to rebound, as demonstrated during the Lok Sabha elections, could be a significant threat, especially if he uses this period to regroup and counter-attack the BJP.
2. BJP’s Policy Play: An Electoral Gamble
Perhaps the BJP wants to utilize the potential President’s Rule to showcase its governance credentials. During the six-month rule, the party could implement key policies aimed at wooing Delhi voters. After all, Delhi has always supported BJP in national elections, giving them all seven MPs in 2019 and maintaining a 50% vote share. However, translating this popularity into assembly seats has always been an uphill task. Would six months of direct governance make a difference? The odds seem slim.
3. Short Public Memory: A Double-Edged Sword
The BJP may be banking on public memory being short, hoping to capitalize on the tarnished image of Kejriwal and AAP. But they should remember that voters have forgiven similar political missteps before. The people of Uttar Pradesh, for example, seemingly forgot the disastrous governance of the Samajwadi Party and rewarded them with a significant number of seats. Similarly, if Kejriwal re-emerges with his freebies and populist measures, six months might not be enough to erode AAP’s stronghold.
4. Haryana’s Influence: A Domino Effect?
With Haryana’s Assembly elections on the horizon and BJP potentially facing losses there, the party may be trying to prevent a spillover effect into Delhi. By imposing President’s Rule, BJP could buy itself more time to shore up its position in the region. However, past experiences show that voters are often more sophisticated and can separate state politics from national politics, as seen in previous electoral cycles.
5. A Real Concern for Governance?
The BJP might argue that Delhi’s bureaucracy has come to a halt with Kejriwal in jail, and the state is suffering due to a lack of governance. But this argument is weak, given that Delhi has survived political standstills before. Such a narrative is more likely to be seen as a convenient excuse rather than a genuine concern for the city’s governance.
A Recipe for Disaster
For BJP, imposing President’s Rule could be political suicide. Kejriwal, despite his legal troubles, remains a formidable politician who knows how to turn adversity into opportunity. His popularity is tied to his image as a man of the people, someone who stands up to larger forces. If BJP goes ahead with President’s Rule, it will give Kejriwal exactly what he needs—a weapon to frame himself as a victim of political overreach.
Delhi voters have consistently supported Kejriwal, despite his missteps. He continues to be seen as the provider of “freebies” like electricity, water, and healthcare, which resonate deeply with the electorate. Even with Kejriwal’s image tarnished by the liquor scandal, BJP would be foolish to assume that these scandals will be enough to topple him in Delhi.
The Modi Factor
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a master strategist, will likely remember the embarrassing fallout from the 2016 Uttarakhand President’s Rule fiasco, where the Supreme Court ruled against the move. The political cost was immense, and it’s unlikely Modi will risk a similar scenario in Delhi just months before a crucial election. After all, removing a democratically elected government, especially one that holds 60 out of 70 seats, is no small matter.
Conclusion: BJP Should Tread Carefully
Imposing the President’s Rule could backfire on the BJP, showing their desperation and failure to build a credible leadership in Delhi. Political pundits have long criticized the BJP’s inability to develop strong local leaders in Delhi, a weakness that has cost them in every assembly election since 2013. Kejriwal’s AAP may have its flaws, but they have been smart in exploiting BJP’s leadership vacuum in the city.
If BJP truly wants to make a mark in Delhi, it should focus on ground-level work rather than political shortcuts. Kejriwal has left plenty of room for criticism—whether it’s the lack of clean Yamuna, drinking water, crumbling roads, or governance lapses. However, one wrong move by the BJP could erase all these talking points, turning Kejriwal’s vulnerabilities into strengths.
In the complex game of Delhi politics, the BJP should steer clear of the President’s Rule trap.
Mr. Amit Singh has completed his B.Com from Delhi University and his M. Com from IGNOU, he is currently working in an MNC as finance manager. He Lives in Delhi. Big fan of Sachin Tenudulkar, love economics, accounts, dogs, food, books. He also like writing on several topics mostly finance and current affairs as it interest him the most. Love to make friends and love to have healthy discussions and debate on social platforms on several current affair or educational topics. He has 11 years of vast experience in finance and accounts field. He also investing in share market from last 10 years. You can share yours ideas, write or feedback to me on my official email id i.e amit@madforword.com
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